Hi. Gold broke the upper limit in 2024. And it still shows no sign of stopping. New threats of tariffs from Trump and a failed peace deal add more uncertainty and, hence, may push Gold up for the next few weeks. I don’t think Gold will be rising forever, though. As the pic shows, the last time it rose so quickly was in 2020. It lost a third of its gain in the next year. I do not think it will start rolling back in March. I will keep an eye on the political events this month, and I will update this assessment at the start of April.
What about Oil? As we can see in the pic, Oil has already tried 3 times to break the 50-week average, and all in vain. Oil continues to go down since its peak in 2022. It is the tariffs that threaten to slow down the economic growth. It is still unclear whether Trump will apply tariffs to “cars and all other things” from the EU. And it is still unclear whether Trump’s promise to “drill it, baby” will be implemented this year. If these two events actually take place, Oil may slump down to about 40-50 USD per barrel.
The economic growth cannot pick up, but the recession is over. Powell and Lagarde consider further rate cuts. EURUSD is below the 50-week average, and it starts looking up. If the world has had enough of the conflicts and the recession is over, it is quite the time for EURUSD to go away from the 1.0 parity and achieve its first goal of 1.20. My forecast is that EURUSD will reach 1.10 in March.
