XAU/USD Technical Analysis – February 1, 2025

1. Ichimoku Analysis

The Ichimoku indicator provides a clear view of the trend and key levels.

Current Trend:

• ✅ Price above the Kumo (Cloud): Confirmed bullish trend.
• ✅ Tenkan-sen (blue line) above Kijun-sen (red line): Positive momentum.
• ✅ Chikou Span above past prices: The bullish trend remains intact.
• ⚠️ Price is far from the Kijun-sen: Possible retracement for rebalancing.

Key Levels:

• Major resistance: 2,800.000 (psychological level and recent high).
• Dynamic support: 2,760.000 (Tenkan-sen).
• Stronger support: 2,720.000 (Kijun-sen and Cloud base).

📌 Ichimoku Strategy: The trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the Kumo and Kijun-sen.

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Analysis

The RSI measures price momentum and identifies overbought/oversold areas.

Current RSI Status:

• ✅ RSI near 70, indicating a strong trend.
• ⚠️ If RSI exceeds 70 and starts to decline → Possible correction.
• ⚠️ If RSI drops below 50 → Trend weakening.

📌 RSI Strategy: Watch for a possible retracement, but as long as RSI stays above 60, the trend remains bullish.

3. Candlestick Pattern Analysis (Last 5 Candles)

• 1st candle (5 days ago): Bullish, continuation signal.
• 2nd candle (4 days ago): Doji, sign of indecision.
• 3rd candle (3 days ago): Bearish, but without breaking key supports.
• 4th candle (2 days ago): Strong bullish candle, confirming trend recovery.
• 5th candle (last): Bullish, closing near highs → Strong trend.

Possible Patterns Identified:

• ✅ Bullish Continuation: The candle sequence supports trend continuation.
• ⚠️ Potential Evening Star Formation: If the next candle opens higher but closes below 2,780.000, it could indicate a bearish reversal.

📌 Conclusion: The trend is bullish, but caution is advised for potential weakening signals.

4. Trading Strategies

📈 Long (BUY) Strategies

• 1️⃣ Pullback on Tenkan-sen (2,760.000)
• Entry: Buy if price bounces at 2,760.000.
• Stop-loss: Below Kijun-sen (2,720.000).
• Target: 2,820.000.
• 2️⃣ Breakout above 2,800.000
• Entry: Buy above 2,800.000 with volume confirmation.
• Stop-loss: Below 2,780.000.
• Target: 2,850.000.

📉 Short (SELL) Strategies

• 1️⃣ RSI overbought and reversal signal
• Entry: Sell if RSI exceeds 70 and then declines.
• Stop-loss: Above 2,805.000.
• Target: 2,760.000.
• 2️⃣ Close below 2,760.000
• Entry: Sell if price breaks 2,760.000 with RSI below 50.
• Stop-loss: Above 2,770.000.
• Target: 2,720.000.

5. Conclusion

• ✅ Dominant trend: Bullish with Ichimoku support.
• ⚠️ RSI near overbought: Risk of correction.
• 📌 Best current trade: Wait for a pullback to 2,760.000 for a buy with stop below 2,720.000.
• 🔍 Monitor: RSI and next candle to confirm direction.