XAU/USD Technical Analysis – February 17, 2025

1. Ichimoku Analysis

Current Trend

• Price above the Kumo (Cloud): The trend remains bullish.
• Tenkan-sen (blue line) above Kijun-sen (red line): Positive momentum still active.
• Chikou Span (green) above the price from 26 periods ago: Confirms trend strength.

Key Levels

• Main Resistance: 2,920 – 2,940 (recent highs).
• Dynamic Support (Tenkan-sen): 2,880, a key level to defend.
• Stronger Support (Kijun-sen): 2,800 – 2,820, a critical zone in case of a deeper correction.

Ichimoku Conclusion: The trend remains bullish, but today’s candle is testing the Tenkan-sen support. If the price closes below it, we could see a retracement to 2,820 – 2,800.

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Analysis

• Current RSI Value: 68.18, below the overbought threshold (70).
• RSI Trendline: Initial weakening below dynamic support.

Interpretation:

• Above 70: Overbought market → Risk of correction.
• Between 50 and 70: Still positive trend, but possible consolidation.
• Below 50: Bearish reversal.

RSI Conclusion: The bullish momentum is losing strength. If RSI breaks dynamic support, a deeper pullback could follow.

3. Candlestick Pattern Analysis (Last 5 Candles)

1. 5 days ago: Strong bullish candle → Trend continuation.
2. 4 days ago: Small candle with upper wick → First signs of indecision.
3. 3 days ago: Larger bearish candle → Retracement begins.
4. 2 days ago: Bearish candle → Pullback continuation.
5. Today (Feb 17): Testing the Tenkan-sen, possible support or further decline.

Candlestick Conclusion: The pattern shows a slowdown in bullish momentum. If today’s candle closes below 2,880, the pullback could extend to 2,820 – 2,800.

4. Trading Strategies

✅ Long (Buy)

Strategy 1: Rebound on Tenkan-sen (~2,880)

• Entry: Buy if the price rebounds above 2,880.
• Stop-loss: Below 2,870.
• Target: 2,920 – 2,940.

Strategy 2: Breakout above 2,920

• Entry: Buy above 2,920 with high volume.
• Stop-loss: Below 2,900.
• Target: 2,960 – 2,980.

❌ Short (Sell)

Strategy 1: Close below Tenkan-sen (~2,880)

• Entry: Sell below 2,880 with bearish confirmation.
• Stop-loss: Above 2,890.
• Target: 2,820 – 2,800.

Strategy 2: Break below Kijun-sen (~2,800)

• Entry: Sell if the price drops below 2,800.
• Stop-loss: Above 2,820.
• Target: 2,760 – 2,740.

5. Conclusion

• Overall Trend: Bullish, but in pullback phase.
• RSI: Declining, indicating weakening momentum.
• Candlestick Pattern: Critical test of Tenkan-sen at 2,880.

📌 Best Current Opportunity:

• ✔ BUY above 2,880 if today’s candle holds.
• ❌ SELL below 2,880 if it closes negatively, target 2,820.

Monitor today’s close to confirm the next direction!